Clarkstown, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS61 KOKX 250834
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west and then passes well to
the south overnight. A cold front passes through the region
Christmas afternoon. High pressure briefly returns Thursday
night into Friday. A winter storm likely affects the area late
Friday into Saturday morning. Another frontal system may affect
the area Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure returns early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Dry, with near seasonable temperatures, becoming breezy
  Thursday afternoon.

High pressure builds in from the west, and over the region this
evening. The high then drifts to the south tonight as a cold
front approaches from the north. Tonight and Christmas Day will
be dry, with high temperatures just a few degrees above seasonal
normals. A cold front passes through the region Christmas
afternoon with some cloudiness and breezy northerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
What`s Changed: There have been no changes to existing winter
weather headlines. Snowfall amounts have been lowered slightly
across coastal Long Island and NYC, and raised slightly across
southern/coastal CT.

Key Messages:

* Confidence in a winter storm impacting the area Friday evening
  through Saturday morning continues to increase. Travel will be
  impacted Friday evening into early Saturday morning.

* Heavy snow is possible Friday night/early Saturday morning.
  Total accumulation ranges from 4 to 8 inches in the watch area and
  2 to 5 inches east of the watch in SE CT and east end of Long
  Island.

Global models and their associated ensemble systems continue to
highlight a quick moving shortwave rounding a strong upper ridge
centered over the central plains, approaching the local area from
the northwest Friday afternoon. At the surface, a cold high
pressure centered over Quebec heads to the east as a surface low
traverses the OH Valley, through PA and generally south of the
local forecast area by 12Z Saturday. This will allow for a cold
and dry arctic airmass to remain in place at the start as the
shortwave and sfc low pressure approach Friday afternoon.

Model consensus continues to have the local area on the north side
of the system, though it`s notable that the 00Z NAM made a dramatic
shift to the north with the sfc low. As is typical with the NAM in
warm nose aloft scenarios, this run is either an anomaly, or the
beginning of the trend that will need to be watched over the next
several model cycles, as this track would lower snow totals across
NE NJ and the LoHud at the expense of sleet/IP. Nonetheless, thermal
profiles from most 00Z guidance and the NBM continues to be
suggestive of a period of decent snow growth from late Friday into
early Saturday across much of the CWA. Best h7 frontogenetic forcing
appears on a line from SWF-LGA-HVW by 00-03Z Saturday, though this
feature continues to wiggle with the sfc low track changes from
guidance to guidance. Areas that fall under any heavy banding will
pick up the highest snowfall totals with the highest rates, with the
typical positional uncertainty this far out on exactly where that
will happen.

All said, and in conjunction with the latest WPC WSO and neighboring
WFOs, held the line on existing winter storm watch areas with this
update.  Should the trend of a more northerly low track solution
continue, warning level snow could be possible for SE CT and the
watch would need to be expanded there.

Snowfall Forecast: 4 to 8 inches possible within the watch area and
2 to 5 inches further east outside of the watch. A reasonable worst
case scenario of 8 to 10 inches currents exists within the watch
area with potential locations further east could still see warning
criteria met.

Snowfall rates: Peak rates around 1 inch per hour possible. There is
a low chance rates could come close to 2 inches per hour in heavier
banding. The snow may initially begin with a higher ratio (drier
snow) and then trend to a lower ratio (wetter) as the storm moves
across the area. This will be fine tuned over the next day or so as
high range guidance comes into range and the event draws closer.

As noted above with the trend in the 00Z NAM, there is still some
concern with the warm advection aloft Friday night bringing in a mix
with sleet late in the event. The latest (01Z) NBM probability of
sleet is very low and trends seem to be leaning towards keeping the
precipitation all snow across the area. Models can sometimes
underestimate the warm advection aloft. This is something that will
need to be watched, especially for parts of northeast NJ and
interior Lower Hudson Valley as this is the direction the warm air
aloft tries to move in from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

*The next system for Sunday afternoon into early Monday looks to be
mainly rain with only a chance of a wintry mix across the interior.
Highest probabilities for precip occur late Sunday and persist
through Sunday night into early Monday.

*Dry weather returns on Monday behind the frontal system into
 midweek with below normal temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure slides offshore to the south this morning. A cold
front passes through in the afternoon.

VFR through the period.

Light and variable winds early this morning becomes light SW
through 12Z. The SW flow increases into mid morning, and gusts
20-25 kt develop, before winds veer W with cold fropa around
18Z, and speeds pick up behind it, gusts up to 30 kt. Speeds
gradually lower into the overnight, and frequent gusts largely
abate after 6Z for most terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional NW gusts above 30 kt possible for aft/eve push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Tonight: VFR. NW/N gusts subsiding to 20 kt and becoming
occasional.

Friday: VFR in the morning, becoming IFR in snow from KBDR and
KISP and west mid to late afternoon. LIFR, possibly VLIFR in snow
Fri Eve/night across the region. Low potential (<30%) for IP/RA to
mix in Fri Night for NYC/NJ metro and LI terminals.

Saturday: IFR with AM snow, low potential (<30%) for IP/RA to mix in
Sat AM for NYC/NJ metro and LI terminals. IFR conditions may linger
through the afternoon with a mix of light snow/DZ/FZDZ. Improving
conditions late Sat into Sat eve.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR with rain developing in the afternoon,
continuing overnight.

Monday: MVFR/IFR with rain AM, improving in the afternoon. SW/W
winds G25-30 kt.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With increasing winds ahead of a cold front SCA conditions
develop on the ocean waters early this morning, and then with
the passage of the front later today, northerly gusts continue
at SCA levels through tonight. SCA on all waters through early
Friday address this.

Low pressure then passes south of the waters Friday night
through Saturday. Conditions will remain below SCA levels Friday
into Friday night. Winds and seas build behind the system later
Saturday with the next potential of SCA conditions. Seas should
briefly subside Sunday. Another frontal system impacts the
waters Sunday night. This will bring another threat of SCA
conditions. Behind the system on Monday, gales are possible and
this is mentioned in the HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for CTZ005-009.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DBR
HYDROLOGY...DBR